The Gulf states
(http://www.economist.com/node/18114585)
Feb 10th 2011 | DUBAI AND MANAMA | from PRINT EDITION
THE common grievances of the Arab world—unemployment, corruption and repressive government—are issues too in the Gulf. Monarchs, including the Saudi king, have expressed support for Hosni Mubarak, fearing the loss of an important pro-Western ally and bulwark against Iran. But "most Saudis support the two revolutions," says Saud al-Sarhan, a researcher based in Riyadh. Gerd Nonneman, a Gulf expert at Exeter University, says that praise from sheikhs and princes for the Egyptian and Tunisian regimes has been viewed with ill-concealed disdain.
Saudi bloggers lamented their government's decision to give Tunisia's ex-ruler refuge, but their reasons differed. Some complained that he was a dictator; others thought he was too secular. This helps explain why building an opposition movement is so difficult in Saudi Arabia. Grievances are plenty: about living standards, poor schools, lack of jobs. But the government is adept at using repression, propaganda, tribal networks and patronage to divide and weaken any opposition. Middle-class liberals are wary of democratising steps that might give more power to anti-Western Islamists. State-backed clerics have denounced the Egyptian and Tunisian protesters, and issued fatwas against anything similar in Saudi Arabia.
Only in the eastern province—home to a large but marginalised Shia population—is there much tradition of protest. But community leaders there are cautious, and desperate to avoid any accusations that they are a "fifth column" for Iran. Earlier this month young Saudis in the eastern city of Qatif planned a demonstration demanding political reforms, but community leaders talked them out of it. Still, there is a risk that these careful leaders will eventually lose control of the street.
Most Saudis have no wish to see a revolution, says Saud al-Tamamy of King Saud University. The events are being used by columnists, activists and ordinary citizens to push for more reforms and to attack corruption. But it is unclear whether any real reforms will follow, especially as the country's rulers are more preoccupied with succession, and with their own ill health.
In neighbouring Bahrain opposition groups complain of unemployment, corruption and discrimination against the Shia majority by the Sunni elite. The prime minister, Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa, has been in power ten years longer than Mr Mubarak. Oil production is declining, forcing the government to readdress the implicit social contract whereby Gulf governments provide subsidies and jobs, and levy hardly any taxes, in return for political loyalty. Other Gulf states will face that problem when the oil and gas begin to run out.
United Arab Emirates
That is still several decades off for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE. Nonetheless, Kuwait's politically sophisticated citizens are demanding more rights, and the interior minister has just stepped down over torture claims. Unrest is less likely in the UAE and Qatar, where most of the population are foreign workers. But the UAE authorities are taking no chances. On February 4th a teacher there was arrested after expressing solidarity with the Egyptian protesters at a mosque. Clearly, these are jumpy times.
from PRINT EDITION | Briefing
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